Bitcoin Crash Incoming? ALTCOIN SEASON 2020 (BITCOIN ...

US Market Crash Expected as Household Income Explodes, Will Millennials Flock to Bitcoin? ⋆ Crypto New Media

US Market Crash Expected as Household Income Explodes, Will Millennials Flock to Bitcoin? ⋆ Crypto New Media submitted by MellzorLovely to CryptoStock [link] [comments]

The Four Horsemen - Signs of Incoming Crashes, and things.

Hey y'all! I'm going to keep this brief, but I was asked by Mr. October to post this, since I briefly described this on a discord we're both in. I do a ton of market analysis, mostly on alternative data, so I don't have cool superpowers potentially, but I do fancy myself a good trendspotter.
I wanted to share what I call my Four Horseman metric in brief, and I will fill it in more later when I get back/free from the clutches of homework.
The Four Horsemen:
  1. Rapid plunge in BTC/USD - This is an interesting metric, and makes sense if you understand that BTC has evolved from a hedge to a speculation play, which is why it arguably moves in lockstep with SPY most days. However, an interesting property I and many others have noticed is BTC seems to be a leading indicator of market movements, and rapid climbs/plunges tend to signal an incoming correction. See the chart on September 2nd, 2020 for an example.
  2. NOPE_MAD >= 3 End of Day: NOPE, or Net Option Pricing Effect, in principle looks at how dominant options flow trading volume is on the market compared to the more conventional shares volume. When the NOPE_MAD (median absolute deviation) compared to the previous 30 days is 3 deviations higher than normal, this means a red day the next day about 88% of the time (backtested to Mar 2019). You can check NOPE_MAD intraday here - https://thenope.info/nope/default/charts/SPY/2020-10-13 (the URL changes per day, so tomorrow will be 2020-10-14)
  3. The VIX rising with SPY - This usually is part of the parabolic phase, and means a metric fuck ton of calls are being written, which is pushing up option prices across the board. Usually VIX is a measure of downies-volatility, so when it and SPY both go up, it's a Very Bad Thing. Also see September 2nd, 2020.
  4. Small Tech/Caps Leading Big Tech/Caps - This is a more interesting metric, and only makes sense when you understand what causes a Minsky Moment style correction (irrational exuberance). In a stable market, big caps tend to act as a source of strength/safe harbor, and when small caps are leading, this tends to signal intense bull mania, which usually precedes a correction.
Honorable Mentions:
  1. Microsoft going up parabolically - Microsoft is our favorite boomer stock for a reason - it is much more stable than AMZN or AAPL, and doesn't like large movements. I noticed anecdotally this year that right before all the big tech corrections (3-5 days out) MSFT goes up exponentially, often more than the rest of the market, because smart money is looking for safe harbor.
I'd be happy to answer any questions later!

Edit: Wanted to add some stuff given the comments below.
  1. I did not write this to predict a crash based on today's behavior, but to generally inform about a metric I use to detect Minsky Moment style crashes. For more info on that - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minsky_moment
  2. Lots of these indicators are new, and due in large part due to the relative fuckiness of the current market. Bitcoin and SPY did not track until this year, and I only noticed the Microsoft effect I mentioned since about 6/5 onwards. This likely also happens in other boomesafe stocks, but MSFT is by far my largest active trading position, hence why I noticed it.
  3. I will be adding a post soon specifically dedicated to the interpretation of NOPE and NOPE_MAD.
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[H] +300 Steam Games (Special discount) [W] Paypal (from 0.75$ each)

   
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Recently added. New games weekly Press Ctrl + F to search games in the list
   
   
   
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12$
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[H] +300 Steam Games (Special discount) [W] Paypal (from 0.75$ each)

   
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Recently added. New games weekly Press Ctrl + F to search games in the list
   
   
   
0.75$ (OFFER 4x2: choose 4 games and pay only 2.5$ fees included)
   
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4.5$ (OFFER:Take 2 games for only 7$ instead of 9$)
   
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[H] +300 Steam Games (Special discount) [W] Paypal (from 0.75$ each)

   
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Payment through Paypal (USD) using Good & Services option. Not accepting other type of payment (bitcoin, Venmo, etc). If you want to pay using F&F option fees are on your side. (I'm from EU).
   
Recently added. New games weekly Press Ctrl + F to search games in the list
   
   
   
0.75$ (OFFER 4x2: choose 4 games and pay only 2.5$ fees included)
   
3$ (OFFER:Take 2 games for only 4.75$ instead of 6$)
   
4.5$ (OFFER:Take 2 games for only 7$ instead of 9$)
   
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I want to share my 2017 crypto market experience for anyone who wants to read it, I was one of the greedy guys who knew nothing about trading and still made a potential ton, then lost it all due to, well... Being greedy and knowing nothing about trading.

This does not really bother me much, but I haven't been able to stop thinking about it either, what could have been, I will try to be as brief as posible:

Back in 2011-2016 I was working as a software developer freelancer, back then I lived in Venezuela, and mostly used paypal to charge clients, paypal would constantly limit my account, but I would get it back after submitting documents and a bit of begging, this was the only way I could receive payments from international clients, and basically the single point of failure in the process of delivering my work and getting paid, if paypal permanently banned me I would be completely screwed.

About 2015-2016 my paypal got limited permanently, no reason stated, I thought it was really unfair as I only received payments from business in countries like the US or Canada, no sketchy money entering my account, anyway, when this happened I became incredibly stressed and depressed, all I could think was I wouldn't be able to feed my family anymore, and what would I do if an emergency happened that same day or week or however long it took me to figure out how to receive payments again through another method, all I had was held in my paypal account, so I had nothing to defend myself in the meantime.

Anyway, it took me about a week of constant reading to realize I could convince a few clients to buy crypto for me, I lost about 60% out of my stream of income due to clients ditching me as they didn't want the bother of purchasing crypto just to pay a freelancer they could replace for one that was easier to work with, I used localbitcoins to sell the bitcoins I got for national currency so that I could purchase what I needed, I was not really able to stock up on some bitcoin as an investment as I spent everything I earned due to sustaining my almost the entirety of my immediate family.

Fast forward to 2016 or 2017, and I start to try out purchasing bits of crypto, and trying to time the market to make a little bit more, doing this somehow I managed to convert about $100, into $400-$500 in a matter of a few months.

Then hits late 2017, around august I believe, when everyone was purchasing alts like crazy even if they were scams, most people were blinded by greed, me included, it was at that point that I decided to drop work for a few weeks to see if I could make some good profit out of the state of the market, and so I took those $400 or $500, and started to daily trade with it, making 20% sometimes, 30% or 50%, as well as sometimes losing everything I had done during the day, a few of the trades I remember doing was purchasing LTC, XRP, IOTA, BCH and a few more right before they 2x or 3x in price, I was doing swing trades with the entirety of my portfolio, because I realized I could earn more that way, so if I had 5k total in crypto, I would do the swing trade with the entirety of it, and either lose $1000 or make $1000 if it moved 20% in either direction, my only real strategy was to read up on most recent trading discussions on a few social media, which was no strategy at all, I was just being reckless, I remember I could only sleep 2 hours every night because I was afraid of losing everything while being asleep, I set a bunch of alerts, was stressed, didn't want to talk to relatives nor anyone because I would feel like dying when losing 10% or 20% out of my portfolio when it grew to a certain point.

Anyway, at some point I got up to $20k, or $25k, then decided to put it all in XML because I had read some discussions on it, and realized people seemed to really like it, don't remember exactly what was my entry price, but when XLM almost got up to $0.70 - $1 a few days or weeks later, my portfolio was worth $130k, and it remained that way for a whole 24 hours or so, If I remember correctly My heart was racing, I thought for sure I was going to make it $1m at some point

Then, of course, everything started to crash hard... just a few days later my portfolio was worth $80k, a few days more and I was at $60k, I started to panic like any regular silly greedy guy and tried to profit off some swings only to lose more than I would profit from, months of sleepless nights later, with a lot less hair in my head, I finally decided to take it all out, at which point I had about $12k worth of crypto.

I used that money to get me, my wife and my mom out of the country, I was also lucky to have dual citizenship thanks to my mom having been born in another country, so I could move to a first world developed european country instead of another struggling country in south america, I was able to set up proper bank accounts so that I could find good clients and make it easier for them to pay me my dues and still use crypto for those that were willing, and of course, I took my work back as a freelancer, although by this point my previous clients had found other people to work with.

In the end things turned great, I suppose, I would not have been able to save up those same $12k while working as a freelancer back in Venezuela, not even close, that whole experience got me out of that awful country and way of life, still, I can't stop thinking that if I at least had gotten out at $80k, or even $60k, I would have a down payment on a decent house, were, even 1/3 of the price of it, easily... instead, I blew through it while moving to the new country and paying a year worth of rent plus a couple of work laptops for both me and my wife.

This part of my life will always be a crazy memory to keep, and share with future friends I may make, so I felt like sharing it here as I have been watching the sub for a while, though I just lurk.
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[H] +300 Steam Games (Special discount) [W] Paypal (from 0.75$ each)

   
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[H] +300 Steam Games (Special discount) [W] Paypal (from 0.75$ each)

   
One free game of your choice for each purchase (only first list games)
      REP
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IGSRep +82 trades confirmed
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Payment through Paypal (USD) using Good & Services option. Not accepting other type of payment (bitcoin, Venmo, etc). If you want to pay using F&F option fees are on your side. (I'm from EU).
   
Recently added. New games weekly Press Ctrl + F to search games in the list
   
   
   
0.75$ (OFFER 4x2: choose 4 games and pay only 2.5$ fees included)
   
3$ (OFFER:Take 2 games for only 4.75$ instead of 6$)
   
4.5$ (OFFER:Take 2 games for only 7$ instead of 9$)
   
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[H] +300 Steam Games (Special discount) [W] Paypal (from 0.75$ each)

   
      REP
Steam profile
IGSRep +84 trades confirmed
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GameTradeREP +24 trades confirmed
       
Payment through Paypal (USD) using Good & Services option. Not accepting other type of payment (bitcoin, Venmo, etc). If you want to pay using F&F option fees are on your side. (I'm from EU).
   
Recently added. New games weekly Press Ctrl + F to search games in the list
   
   
   
0.75$ (OFFER 4x2: choose 4 games and pay only 2.5$ fees included)
   
3.40$ (OFFER:Take 2 games for only 5$ instead of 6.80$)
   
5$ (OFFER:Take 2 games for only 7.5$ instead of 10$)
   
submitted by SparkyNest to SteamGameSwap [link] [comments]

[H] +300 Steam Games (Special discount) [W] Paypal (from 0.75$ each)

   
One free game of your choice for each purchase (only first list games)
      REP
Steam profile
IGSRep +83 trades confirmed
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GameTradeREP +24 trades confirmed
       
Payment through Paypal (USD) using Good & Services option. Not accepting other type of payment (bitcoin, Venmo, etc). If you want to pay using F&F option fees are on your side. (I'm from EU).
   
Recently added. New games weekly Press Ctrl + F to search games in the list
   
   
   
0.75$ (OFFER 4x2: choose 4 games and pay only 2.5$ fees included)
   
3$ (OFFER:Take 2 games for only 4.75$ instead of 6$)
   
4.5$ (OFFER:Take 2 games for only 7$ instead of 9$)
   
submitted by SparkyNest to indiegameswap [link] [comments]

[H] +300 Steam Games (Special discount) [W] Paypal (from 0.75$ each)

   
      REP
Steam profile
IGSRep +86 trades confirmed
SGS Flair +222 trades confirmed
GameTradeREP +24 trades confirmed
       
Payment through Paypal (USD) using Good & Services option. Not accepting other type of payment (bitcoin, Venmo, etc). If you want to pay using F&F option fees are on your side. (I'm from EU).
   
Recently added. New games weekly Press Ctrl + F to search games in the list
   
   
   
0.75$ (OFFER 4x2: choose 4 games and pay only 2.5$ fees included)
   
3.40$ (OFFER:Take 2 games for only 5$ instead of 6.80$)
   
5$ (OFFER:Take 2 games for only 7.5$ instead of 10$)
   
12$
submitted by SparkyNest to SteamGameSwap [link] [comments]

[H] +300 Steam Games (Special discount) [W] Paypal (from 0.75$ each)

   
      REP
Steam profile
IGSRep +86 trades confirmed
SGS Flair +222 trades confirmed
GameTradeREP +24 trades confirmed
       
Payment through Paypal (USD) using Good & Services option. Not accepting other type of payment (bitcoin, Venmo, etc). If you want to pay using F&F option fees are on your side. (I'm from EU).
   
Recently added. New games weekly Press Ctrl + F to search games in the list
   
   
   
0.75$ (OFFER 4x2: choose 4 games and pay only 2.5$ fees included)
   
3.40$ (OFFER:Take 2 games for only 5$ instead of 6.80$)
   
5$ (OFFER:Take 2 games for only 7.5$ instead of 10$)
   
12$
submitted by SparkyNest to indiegameswap [link] [comments]

[H] +300 Steam Games (Special discount) [W] Paypal (from 0.75$ each)

   
      REP
Steam profile
IGSRep +86 trades confirmed
SGS Flair +222 trades confirmed
GameTradeREP +24 trades confirmed
       
Payment through Paypal (USD) using Good & Services option. Not accepting other type of payment (bitcoin, Venmo, etc). If you want to pay using F&F option fees are on your side. (I'm from EU).
   
Recently added. New games weekly Press Ctrl + F to search games in the list
   
   
   
0.75$ (OFFER 4x2: choose 4 games and pay only 2.5$ fees included)
   
3.40$ (OFFER:Take 2 games for only 5$ instead of 6.80$)
   
5$ (OFFER:Take 2 games for only 7.5$ instead of 10$)
   
12$
submitted by SparkyNest to SteamGameSwap [link] [comments]

[H] +300 Steam Games (Special discount) [W] Paypal (from 0.75$ each)

   
One free game of your choice for each purchase (only first list games)
      REP
Steam profile
IGSRep +83 trades confirmed
SGS Flair +220 trades confirmed
GameTradeREP +24 trades confirmed
       
Payment through Paypal (USD) using Good & Services option. Not accepting other type of payment (bitcoin, Venmo, etc). If you want to pay using F&F option fees are on your side. (I'm from EU).
   
Recently added. New games weekly Press Ctrl + F to search games in the list
   
   
   
0.75$ (OFFER 4x2: choose 4 games and pay only 2.5$ fees included)
   
3$ (OFFER:Take 2 games for only 4.75$ instead of 6$)
   
4.5$ (OFFER:Take 2 games for only 7$ instead of 9$)
   
submitted by SparkyNest to SteamGameSwap [link] [comments]

Bitcoin CRASH incoming? (Analysis) Bitcoin Crash Incoming? Really bad news! Will Tether pump it one last time? This News Is INSANE For Cryptocurrencies.. BULL RUN INCOMING! Bitcoin Death Cross INCOMING  Live Price, FUD News and BTC Giveaway MASSIVE BITCOIN COLLAPSE INCOMING? - HERE'S HOW TO TRADE A ...

Bitcoin Has Yet to Break Key Resistance Despite Strong Monthly Close Bitcoin Posts a 66-Day Consecutive Streak Above the $10K Price Range Here’s Why Ethereum Might Plunge to $340 Before Ending Its Bear Trend Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and RIpple (XRP) Analysis. Cryptocurrency Technical Analysis and Cryptocurrency News. Cryptocurrency Technical Analysis and Cryptocurrency News. altcoin altcoin news Bitcoin’s price has managed to climb $300 today and break bullish out of a 19-day consolidation pattern (white dashed lines). This is pretty surprising considering the recent Kucoin hack, BitMEX investigation from the CFTC, and the potential for a second wave of lockdowns worldwide. Bitcoin just had its highest weekly close since January 2018!! October is set to match on the monthly chart. If we can close November above $13,800 per Bitcoin is on the verge of a serious market correction that could send its price plummeting to new lows, one market watcher has opined. The Twitter analyst and avid markets researcher ‘CryptoWhale,’ is warning of an incoming Bitcoin crash.. As would be expected, this sentiment seems to oppose that of the majority who think Bitcoin is currently building up momentum for an eventual break out ...

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Bitcoin CRASH incoming? (Analysis)

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